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研究報告
2025/05/01
Response and Restructuring of Taiwanese Businesses in China Amid Escalating U.S.-China Trade Tensions
Back in 2018, when the U.S. first launched its trade policy against China, the focus was on labor-intensive industries: electronics, textiles, footwear, and furniture. Hit with a 25% tariff, Chinese manufacturers and American importers responded by absorbing the added costs, splitting them roughly 15%:10% to maintain trade volumes and price stability. Given that average profit margins in these sectors ranged from 10% to 20%, most companies could still operate profitably. However, with the U.S. now imposing much broader “reciprocal tariffs”, even the initial 34% duty has proven difficult to absorb for Chinese manufacturers. As of April 2, cumulative tariffs from the first round of the trade war have already reached 45%, putting enormous pressure on China’s export sector.[李亦晴1]  Heading into the second quarter of 2025, global demand had already cooled, with downward revisions to corporate order books. A decrease in global demand and downward corporate order revisions collided with new tariff shocks. Within a week of the announcement, global firms suspended shipments. The U.S. later reduced the rate back to 10%, offering a 90-day reprieve. However, by then, supply chains were already in flux. Two diverging strategies have emerged: downstream manufacturers and end-product suppliers have rushed to stockpile inventory, hoping to lock in lower tariff costs before rates spike again. Upstream players and those with longer production lead times have instead seen order cancellations as customers move to cut risk. The resulting shockwaves are being felt across entire supply chains. If tariffs continue rising beyond what the economy can bear, a complete Chinese withdrawal from the U.S. market is on the table. This would translate to an exit that could erase an estimated 3% of China’s GDP and bring growth to a near standstill.[1] Given the deep involvement of firms with Taiwanese investment in China’s export economy, the outcome of this trade conflict holds enormous implications for Taiwanese industries. [1] While Beijing still claims a 5% growth rate, independent data triangulation suggests the real figure is closer to 3.5%.