Consumer to Wait for Device Compatible with Multiple Standards

Consumers have learnt their lessons from past experience with the standards battles between VHS and Beta and between DVD+R and DVD-R; Unsurprisingly. many consumers adopted a wait-and-see attitude with respect to the conflict between next-generation DVD standards.

For consumers of hi-tech products, waiting until a unified standard has been established not only reduces risk, it also increases the likelihood that prices will have fallen by the time the consumer eventually buys the product in question. For equipment vendors, on the other hand, and particularly for the main proponents of a new standard, consumers' hesitation is less welcome.

The competition between the VHS and Beta video player standards was over a relatively simple analog consumer appliance. Achieving compatibility between the two standards was not only difficult but unnecessary, as there was no question of needing to transfer content from one to the other. However, the growth of digital technology has created a complex range of different video, audio, text, and graphics content formats, where the launch of a new product may be accompanied by the emergence of yet another format. Given this growing complexity, most consumers now attach great importance to compatibility; they also want to be sure that the product they are buying now has all the functions that will be needed in the future.

Having experienced earlier standards wars, consumers have learned to exercise caution when new products are first introduced onto the market. In the future, consumers will be even more reluctant to purchase new product types before a unified standard has been established. For the companies that are seeking to promote these new products, bringing conflict over standards to an end as quickly as possible will be of the utmost importance.

HDD, SD Cards, BD to Dominate the Storage Market  

The hard drive is, without question, still the most powerful data storage medium, with some hard drives now providing up to 1TB of storage capacity. Hard drives can be used with a wide range of different applications, are well suited to use with online storage, and permit rapid accessing and storage of data. The capacity of SD (Secure Digital) memory cards has grown steadily over the past few years; 32GB SD cards are now available, although they are still very expensive. The small size of SD cards makes them ideally suited to use in digital cameras, digital video camcorders, and mobile phones. The large storage capacity of the Blu-ray disc ?25GB for single-layer discs and 50GB in the case of dual-layer discs ?makes it the perfect medium for high-definition video content, as well as for data back-up by enterprises (and by ordinary consumers, although the level of demand is much lower). Although there is some degree of substitutability between the three storage formats, they each have their own unique strengths, and it can be anticipated that the three formats will coexist for some time to come.

Blu-ray to Benefit Both Equipment Vendors and Consumers

Increasingly Importance of Home Audiovisual Entertainment

Home audiovisual entertainment has become an important entertainment activity for the inhabitants of both developing and developed nations; for most people, having a TV to watch has come to seem almost a basic necessity. During an economic downturn, TV and video related entertainment is usually one of the last sectors to be affected; consumers who are prepared to cut back on other types of non-essential expenditure are much less willing to reduce spending in this area.

Advent of Digital Satellite Broadcasting to Stimulate Upgrading

By around 2010, the US, most European countries and countries in many other parts of the world will have turned off the analog signal and completed the switch over to digital TV broadcasting. Consumers will effectively be forced to upgrade to digital TV, stimulating sales of related equipment, and helping Blu-ray Disc to establish itself as a mainstream product.

Supporting Shift to a Full-HD Environment

Given the decision by most of the major US movie studios to support Blu-ray, it seems certain that Blu-ray Disc will establish itself as a mainstream film content delivery medium. Blu-ray also has significant potential for use as a home recording medium, including the storage of content recorded using digital cameras and digital video camcorders, marking the next stage in the evolution from Beta and VHS videotape over the last three decades. However, in this area Blu-ray will still have to face serious competition from the hard drive, which offers significant advantages as a data storage medium. 

BD Used as PC File Back-up and Entertainment Media

Blu-ray drives can be built into PCs for use in file back-up and entertainment applications. Once prices have fallen to a reasonable level, the large storage capacity of blank 25GB and 50GB Blu-ray Discs and the ease with which data can be copied onto them will ensure rapid adoption by enterprises and heavy computer users. This is an area where Blu-ray has significant growth potential.

High Penetration Rate in Three Years

Given the rapid fall in the price of consumer electronics equipment over the past few years, the intense competition within the consumer electronics industry, the intense media interest in Blu-ray, and the aggressive marketing of this new standard, combined with the growing willingness of consumers to replace digital entertainment products at frequent intervals, it can be anticipated that Blu-ray will have achieved a relatively high penetration rate by 2010.