Abstract
Ever since WiMAX technology 802.16e was finalized at the end of 2005, subscriber base has grown steadily, and global WiMAX subscriber base is expected to reach 13 million at the end of 2010. But Clearwire, Yota, Qualcomm have announced the deployment of LTE or TD-LTE, threatening the development of WiMAX business. This research report will analyze WiMAX Forum Congress Asia 2010 and Computex Taipei 2010's 4G Network Conference held in the first half of 2010, and gives in-depth analysis on WiMAX market trends and development based on actions taken by WiMAX carriers, equipment suppliers, chipset makers.
Carriers Focusing on Expanding WiMAX Subscriber Base
Looking at the application services provided by WiMAX carriers, it is observed that at the present stage, instead of immediate adoption of new technologies, carriers focus on providing more comprehensive wireless Internet services or providing customers with less high-tagged CPE to choose from, aiming at further expanding the subscriber base and maintaining business operations. Only if the WiMAX business proves to be profitable and able to expand business operations will the business attracts additional capital injection. In other words, switching to new technologies, such as LTE, is not the most pressing issue now.
In the long run, it is expected that when new carriers or investors have to choose between WiMAX and LTE, local infrastructure deployment, business goals, and whether the LTE technology is mature enough to be commercialized between 2011 and 2012 will be taken into consideration. Furthermore, the readiness of LTE-related chipsets, service devices, CPE products, and the supply chain will also play an important role in the carriers' decision when choosing between WiMAX and LTE.
Lowering CPE Prices to Expedite Subscriber Base Expansion
ORP or ZETA 4G Operator Club is expected to promote WiMAX popularization and lower deployment costs. But the distribution of profits among carriers or upstream and downstream vendors is challenging the effects brought by ORP or ZETA 4G Operator Club. Since every carrier adopts different Internet equipment, and each provides different API (Application Programming Interface) for their services, it is difficult to achieve joint purchasing without coordination among the carriers. Furthermore, equipment providers have to develop their own technologies in order to meet the carriers' demand. Therefore, it is expected that they will not be willing to unveil their know-how to other competitors.
There are pending issues related to license fees between the ORP members and the WiMAX Forum; as a result, companies hesitate to participate in the ORP. Therefore, the most direct way to expand the existing WiMAX subscriber base rapidly is lowering the prices of CPE products. In doing so, carriers will be able to save costs by bypassing the equipment vendors and placing orders directly with the CPE manufacturers. Since Taiwanese WiMAX CPE manufacturers are skilled at manufacturing and cost management, the CPE price drop is expected to bring them new business opportunities and help them further develop their technological capabilities.
WiMAX Chipset Suppliers Dedicated to Chipset Integration to Popularize Applications
The major trend of WiMAX chipset development features the integration of radio frequency chipsets with baseband chipsets into a single chipset framework in order to cut CPE costs and meet the carriers' demand. Further integration with Wi-Fi or 3G chipsets for applications in dual-mode or multi-mode seamless network access is expected to be able to help the carriers expand subscriber base.
Sequans demonstrated LTE chipsets in Computex Taipei 2010 to show the company's efforts in developing 4G technology. Although Beceem, GCT, and MediaTek did not participate in the Computex Taipei 2010, they have planned for the development of LTE chipset products as well. It is observed that when showcasing LTE chipsets, chipset makers actually aim at displaying the companies' technological capabilities. It is still a long way to go before the commercialization and volume production of LTE chipsets.
Appendix
Glossary of Terms
API |
|
Application Programming Interface |
CO |
|
Central Office |
CPE |
|
Customer Premises Equipment |
CPU |
|
Central Processing Unit |
CVS |
|
Certification Version Signaling |
DSP |
|
Digital Signal Processor |
LTE |
|
Long Term Evolution |
MID |
|
Mobile Information Device |
MIMO |
|
Multiple Input Multiple Output |
NLOS |
|
Non-Line of Sight |
ORP |
|
Open Retail Program |
ORP |
|
Overlay Routing Protocol |
OTA |
|
Over The Air |
QoS |
|
Quality of Service |
TD-LTE |
|
Time Division Duplex Long Term Evolution |
USB |
|
Universal Serial Bus |
VoIP |
|
Voice over Internet Protocol |
WiMAX |
|
Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access |
WirelessMAN-OFDMA |
|
Wireless Metropolitan Area Network-Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access |
WWAN |
|
Wireless Wide Area Network |
List of Companies
BSNL |
|
|
Beceem |
|
|
Clearwire |
|
|
GCT |
|
鉅銓電子 |
GE |
|
|
Global Mobile |
|
全球一動 |
Huawei |
|
華為 |
Intel |
|
|
MediaTek |
|
聯發科 |
Motorola |
|
|
Packet One Networks |
|
|
Qualcomm |
|
|
Samsung |
|
|
Sequans |
|
|
SP AusNet |
|
|
Vee TIME |
|
威達 |
Yota |
|
|
ZETA 4G Operator Club |
|
|