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3D TV Market Development Outlook, 2010 and Beyond

December 31, 2009 / Patrick Chan

23 Page, Topical Report

US$2,190 (Single User License)

Abstract

With the increasing number of 3D movies, 3D technology featuring the use of special glasses could stimulate the demand for 3D content in the home. The use of 3D technology in home applications is emerging. This report analyzes the commercialization process of 3D TVs and the conditions required for further market development. It examines the development of key companies in the 3D TV sector, and provides a 3D TV market scale forecast for the period 2010-2013. Different possible development scenarios for the 3D TV market are also presented.

Table of Contents
1. Developments among Key Companies in the 3D TV Sector

1.1 3D Movies' Impact on TV Development Gradually Increasing

1.2 Major Panel Manufacturers

1.2.1 Current Products

1.2.2 Technology Blueprints

1.2.2.1 2000-2005

1.2.2.2 2005-2010

1.2.2.3 2010-2015

1.2.2.4 2015-2020

1.2.2.5 2020-2025

1.3 TV Manufacturers

1.3.1 Active Time Division Multiplexing Technology

1.3.2 Passive Polarization Division Multiplexing Technology

2. Development of the 3D TV Supply Chain

2.1 Industry Standards from Up- to Downstream Being Created

2.1.1 Scope

2.1.1.1 3D Production Methods

2.1.1.2 3D Compression Technology

2.1.1.3 3D Transmission Interface

2.1.1.4 3D Viewing Method

2.2 Increase Industry Competitiveness and Expand 3D Content through Popularity of 3D Movies

2.2.1 Sony Possesses Industry Solution Capabilities

2.2.2 Panasonic Has Advantages in Filming and Compression Technologies

2.3 Industry Chain Structure Undergoing Changes in All Segments

3. 3D TV Market Development Drivers

3.1 3D Movie Wave

3.2 3D TV Channel Broadcasts

3.3 Complete Digitization of 3D Content Platforms

3.4 3D Display Standards Are Being Aggressively Developed

3.5 Demand for Large Screens Met by High-generation Production Lines

4. 3D TV Market Scale Forecast and Development Scenarios

4.1 Market Scale Forecast

4.2 Development Scenarios

5. Market Opportunities and Development Bottlenecks

5.1 Market Opportunities

5.1.1 Content Producers

5.1.1.1 Increase 3D Movies

5.1.1.2 Re-release Original 2D Content in 3D

5.1.2 Broadcasters

5.1.2.1 Start Broadcasting 3D Programs

5.1.3 Processor Chip Companies

5.1.3.1 Develop Encoding Technology Compatible with Multiple Image Standards

5.1.3.2 Continue to Research Technologies that Transfers 2D into 3D

5.1.4 TV Hardware Companies

5.1.4.1 3D Applications with Function Innovations

5.1.4.2 Aggressively Roll Out 21:9 Specifications

5.1.4.3 Promote TVs That Are "3D Ready"

5.2 Development Bottlenecks

5.2.1 Test Standards Not Yet Finalized and Consumer Awareness Insufficient

5.2.2 Copyright Regulations, Content Insufficient

5.2.3 3D Viewing Equipment Expensive

MIC Perspective

Appendix

List of Topics
Current and future development of key companies in the 3D TV sector, including display panel manufacturers and TV manufacturers

Industry standard development in different areas

Sony and Panasonic's strategies

Future growth drivers for 3D TV development

3D TV market scale forecast until 2013

Three different possible development scenarios for 3D TVs in the future

Opportunities and challenges for future 3D TV development analyzed for different types of companies

Companies and organizations analyzed or mentioned in the report include: 20th Century Fox, 3ality, AUO, Blu-ray Disc Association, BS, BSkyB, Camera and Imaging Products Association, CMO, Columbia, CPT, Disney, Dolby Laboratories, DreamWorks, Eutelsat, Fox, France Telecom, HDMI Consortium, Hyundai, International Organization for Standardization, JVC, Korea Digital Satellite Broadcasting, LG, LGD, Metro Golden Mayer, Mitsubishi, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, NEC, NuVision, nVidia, Panasonic, Philips, Pixar, Real D, Samsung, Sanyo, SDI, Sharp, Silicon Image, Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers, Sony, TI, Time Warner, TMD, Ultra-Realistic Communication Forum, XPAND

List of Figures
Figure 1 3D Industry Standard Formulation

Figure 2 Sony's Complete 3D Solution

Figure 3 Development of Panasonic's 3D Home System

Figure 4 Worldwide 3D TV Market Scale, 2008 - 2013

Figure 5 3D TV Market Development Scenarios and Corresponding Growth Rates, 2009 - 2013

Figure 6 3D TV Future Development Bottlenecks

3D TVs Generate New Revolution in Industry's Development

In the rapid development of the TV industry, TVs have evolved from CRT models to LCD/PDP models, and now to 3D models. Following LED backlight technology, 3D displays will be the next major technology that influences overall market development.

Panel manufacturers are all aggressively investing in 3D display technology. Significant R&D results have been achieved in polarized glass technology, lenticular lens technologies, etc.

Panel manufacturers use optical design to precisely project 3D display light sources on the left and right eye respectively, in order to avoid crosstalk. This will also prevent people from becoming dizzy when looking at 3D images for an extended period of time, thereby making the 3D viewing experience more natural.

3D, with its revolutionary applications, will be a key development trend in the future. Related changes in the panel industry are about to emerge.

3D TVs Create New Growth Opportunities

3D TV have already been identified as the next major focus area of market sales. With 3D development among movies and 3D TV channels starting broadcasts around the world, leading TV vendors hope to stimulate consumer demand with market launches of 3D TVs and end the fierce price competition that has plagued the market.

3D TV market opportunities depend on market acceptance and the availability of 3D content in order to attract consumers. In the past, market competition revolved around specifications such as reaction time and contrast ratio; however, 3D features will move to the forefront in 2010.

3D TV Offer New Opportunities for Manufacturers to Generate Profits

In 2009 only a handful of companies had 3D TVs on the market, including LG, Hyundai IT Corp. and Mitsubishi.

In 2010, Sony, Panasonic, Samsung and LG are expected to sell 3D TV products.

LG plans to launch 3D TVs in 2010 ranging from 42" to 72". LG has stated that its sales targets for 3D TVs in 2010 and 2011 are 400,000 and 3.4 million respectively.

Sony cooperates with the 3D equipment manufacturer Real D. Sony will obtain 3D technology licenses from the company, and relevant products are expected to hit the market in 2010.

3D TVs will offer opportunities for manufacturers to expand market shares and increase profits. Key factors in terms of overcoming the past tendency to focus solely on selling TV hardware and neglect content software will be to increase consumer acceptance for 3D products and deal with the price competition that will follow.

3D TVs Present New Application Problems

3D TV popularization depends on eliminating issues related to content awareness, copyrights, and testing standards. Manufacturers are aggressively trying to improve the industry environment and further educate consumers in the hope of quickly expanding the 3D TV market.

3D content could quickly grow if existing content is transformed into 3D content. However, transferring copyrighted content to 3D content will have the potential to create considerable conflicts regarding copyright issues.

Appendix

Glossary of Terms

LCS Glass		Liquid Crystal Shutter Glass
HDDP		Horizontally Double-Density Pixel
DLP		Digital Light Processing
MVC		Multi-view Video Coding
H.264 AVC		H.264 Advanced Video Coding
HDMI		High-Definition Multimedia Interface
IPD		Inter-Pupillary Distance
CAGR		Compound Annual Growth Rate

List of Companies

20th Century Fox
3ality
AUO
Blu-ray Disc Association
BS
BSkyB
Camera and Imaging Products Association
CMO
Columbia
CPT
Disney
Dolby Laboratories
DreamWorks
Eutelsat
Fox
France Telecom
HDMI Consortium
Hyundai
International Organization for Standardization
JVC
Korea Digital Satellite Broadcasting
LG
LGD
Metro Golden Mayer
Mitsubishi
National Institute of Information and Communications Technology
NEC
NuVision
nVidia
Panasonic
Philips
Pixar
Real D
Samsung
Sanyo
SDI
Sharp
Silicon Image
Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers
Sony
TI
Time Warner
TMD
Ultra-Realistic Communication Forum
XPAND

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