Abstract

MIC Perspective

Future Threats from New Apple Products to Continue Affecting Ultrabook Vendors

At the Computex 2012, it is observed that Intel continued to lead the development of ultrabooks, which is deemed to be one of key future development trends of notebook PCs. At the initial stage, vendors launched their respective ultrabooks in order to compete head-to-head with the Apple MacBook Air. However, they have difficulties to create product differentiation in terms of industrial designs and service applications. Therefore, they have no choice but to initiate price cuts and have difficulty to step out of shadow of the Apple MacBook Air. On the other hand, should the pricing strategy of the Apple MacBook Air follow the strategy undertaken for the Apple iPad in 2010, the price of the older version of Apple MacBook Air will be reduced immediately following the launch of a newer version. Should this be the case, the pricing strategies of individual vendors will be affected and those vendors will postpone products ready for launch in order to re-adjust the prices and/or make some changes to product specs.

At the Computex, it is found that notebook PC vendors would like to push the sales of their Wintel notebook PCs that have been sluggish for a while leveraging the innovative applications such as ultra-thin design, Windows 8 and different input devices (for example a touch-screen) in order to help differentiate their products from the Apple MacBook series.

Meanwhile, during the exhibition period, on June 5 Apple was awarded by the US Patent and Trademark Office a patent no. D661, 296, which is said to cover the distinctive "teardrop" wedge design of the Apple MacBook Air. Currently, many ultrabooks are designed duplicating the design concept of the MacBook Air to achieve the sleek look and slim and lightweight design. With Apple owning such a patent, notebook PC makers are expected to face challenges when they are designing ultra-thin products. Nevertheless, this risk may be seen as a chance for ultrabook makers to walk out of the shadow the Apple MacBook Air casts.

Touch-Screen Fad Likely to be Only a Passing Phase; Other UI Operating Systems Expected to be Unleashed

At the Computex 2012, it is witnessed that many exhibitors unleashed their respective ultrabooks featuring Windows 8 OS and a touch-screen controller. Except touch-screen ultrabooks, there were virtually no products operating based on other user interfaces being demonstrated. These days, the touch-screen technology on notebook PCs is growing in maturity. Due to the relatively high cost of production associated with the use of a touch-screen interface, the said interface seems to be more appropriate for use on small form-factor handheld devices. Whether the touch-screen interface can eventually be optimal for large form-factor notebook PCs or not remains to be seen.

There are many vendors investing their resources into the development of other operating systems, such as Intel, Microsoft, Asus and Samsung. Those vendors also have their respective planning on developing product with voice-command and motion-sensing functions. Meanwhile, new Windows 8's Metro UI also supports motion-sensing and the feasibility of motion-sensing on notebook PCs therefore increases. In addition, the hardware costs associated with motion-sensing are mainly webcam for motion detection. The remaining costs associated with motion-sensing are software related. Compared to the touch-screen interface, the cost of production stemming from the use of motion-sensing interface is expected to be relatively low. Nevertheless, whether the motion-sensing on notebook PCs can meet up consumer expectations should merit further observation.

The launch of the Apple Siri made a great leap forward for voice-command apps. During the exhibition, Intel proposed the concept of voice-command, an app which is expected to have relatively less hardware costs compared to touch-screen and motion-sensing technologies. Nevertheless, the voice-command app is significantly subject to the user environment compared to other app technologies such that the voice-command app is not appropriate for use in a public area or should be used in a quiet setting.

Neither touch-screen, nor motion-sensing and/or voice-command interface can easily replace the keyboard and mouse, the traditional input devices of notebook PCs. Other alternatives will be mainly used as a supplementary means or will be means "fun-to-use." However, with the development of respective technologies near maturity, the chance of other input technologies such as motion-sensing technology replacing keyboards and mice is therefore promising. Consequently, it is predicted that the notebook PC industry will again encounter some significant changes in the form factor.

Appendix

Glossary of Terms

List of Companies