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The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry, 3Q 2002 and Beyond

November 06, 2002 / Charles Chou

48 Page, Statistics Report

US$1,680 (Single User License)

Abstract

The Greater Chinese notebook PC industry once again hit a new high in shipment volume in the third quarter of 2002 at 4.6 million units. However, the ambitious expansion of Taiwanese manufacturers across the Strait has led to production capacity that exceeds the current volume of the worldwide notebook PC market. As ASP plummets and profit margins are squeezed by component consignments, an increasingly higher degree of industry concentration has taken shape. In addition to a review of the Greater Chinese notebook PC industry in the third quarter of 2002, this report will explore the supply chain that is beginning to coalesce in China, as well the increasing prevalence of desktop solutions and lightweight models. Finally, an analysis of competition from Korean and Japanese players will be provided.

List of Topics
Shipment volume and value forecast up to the third quarter of 2003. Review of third quarter 2002 of shipment volume and value, ASP, manufacturer ranking, and industry concentration. Provides shipments by form factor, price structure, business types, shipment destinations, production locations, product mix, display sizes, all broken down by tier. Major Greater Chinese manufacturer profiles along with coverage of operations in China. In addition , presents future notebook PC and component trends as well as discussion of Korean and Japanese players.

Acer, Alphatop, AMD, Apple, Arima, ASUS, Clevo, Compal, Compaq, Dell, ECS, FIC, Foxconn, Fujitsu-Siemens, Hitachi, HP, IBM, Intel, Inventec, Legend, Medion, Mitac International, Mitac Technology, NEC, Quanta, Sony, Toshiba, Twinhead, Uniwill, Wistron.

List of Figures
Figure 1 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Volume, Shipment Value, and ASP 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 2 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Volume by Tier, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 3 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Value by Tier, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 4 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's ASP by Tier, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 5 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Price Points, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 6 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Share by Price Points, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 7 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Shipment Price Points, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 8 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Shipment Share by Price Points, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 9 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Shipment Price Points, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 10 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Shipment Share by Price Points, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 11 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Full System and Barebone Shipment Value, 1Q 2002 - 3Q 2002

Figure 12 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Full System and Barebone Shipment Volume by Tier, 1Q 2002 - 2Q 2002

Figure 13 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Full System and Barebone Shipment Volume Share by Tier, 1Q 2002 - 3Q 2002

Figure 14 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Volume by Business Type, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 15 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Shipment Volume by Business Type, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 16 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Shipment Volume by Business Type, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 17 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Volume by Destination Area, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 18 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Share by Destination Area, 1Q 2001 - 2Q 2002

Figure 19 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Shipment Volume by Destination Area, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 20 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Shipment Share by Destination Area, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 21 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Shipment Volume by Destination Area, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 22 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Shipment Share by Destination Area, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 23 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Product Mix, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 24 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Product Mix Percentage, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 25 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Product Mix, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 26 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Product Mix Percentage, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 27 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Product Mix, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 28 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Product Mix Percentage, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 29 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Displays by Screen Size, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 30 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Screen Size Ratios, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 31 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Displays by Screen Size, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 32 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Screen Size Ratios, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 33 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Displays by Screen Size, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 34 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Screen Size Ratios, 1Q 2001 - 3Q 2002

Figure 35 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Volume by Production Site, 1Q 2002 - 3Q 2002

Figure 36 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Volume, Shipment Value, and ASP, 3Q 2002 - 3Q 2003

List of Tables
Table 1 Major Greater Chinese Notebook PC Manufacturer Ranking by Tier, 2001 - 3Q 2002

By comparison with Japanese and Korean notebook PC manufacturers, Greater Chinese manufacturers have the advantage in DTS notebook PC production given more extensive experience in manufacturing this product type. The rise of the DTS notebook PC market has been a major driver behind shipment volume growth for Greater Chinese notebook PC manufacturers. Nevertheless, Japanese and Korean manufacturers are also moving into DTS production. Korean manufacturers are expected to start launching DTS notebook PCs in the fourth quarter of 2002. Initially, this new development is unlikely to dissuade the leading European and US vendors from placing their orders with Greater Chinese manufacturers; however, it will significantly reduce Japanese and Korean vendors' reliance on Greater Chinese manufacturers.

The rapid establishment of Taiwanese production bases in China presents certain risks. The total production capacity of Greater Chinese notebook PC manufacturers is already sufficient to supply total global demand for notebook PCs. Such excess capacity will encourage manufacturers to cut prices in order to secure orders and will bring about a yet higher degree of industry concentration.

The total sales of the non-top-ten notebook PC vendors, most of which are channel players, grew steadily in the first three quarters of 2002, eroding into top ten vendor market share, particularly that of vendors ranked sixth through te1`nth. As Japanese manufacturers focus almost entirely on branded production and are not heavily involved with non-top-ten vendors, the rise in non-top-ten shipments will provide the Greater Chinese and South Korean manufacturers with a significant opportunity for growth.

List of Companies

Acer		宏碁
Alphatop		致勝
AMD		超微
Apple		蘋果電腦
Arima		華宇
ASUS		華碩
Clevo		藍天電腦
Compal		仁寶
Compaq
Dell
ECS (Elitegroup Computer Systems)		精英
FIC (First International Computer)		大眾
Foxconn		鴻海
Fujitsu-Siemens		富士通西門子
Hitachi
HP
IBM
Intel		英特爾
Inventec		英業達
Legend		聯想
Medion
Mitac International		神達
Mitac Technology		神基
NEC
Quanta		廣達
Sony
Toshiba
Twinhead		倫飛
Uniwill		志合
Wistron		緯創

List of Industrial Zones

Kunshan Industrial Park Export Processing Zone		昆山出口加工區
Shanghai Caohejing Hi-Tech Park		上海漕河涇開發區
Suzhou New District		蘇州新區

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