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The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry, 1Q 2002 and Beyond

June 05, 2002 / Charles Chou / Wen-tang Chen / Cynthia Chyn / James W. Murphy

0 Page, Statistics Report

US$1,400 (Single User License)

Abstract

The first quarter of 2002 witnessed tremendous year-on-year growth in shipment volume of notebook PCs in Greater China, fueled in part by a record low in ASP and surging popularity of lower-priced models. Desktop solutions notebooks continued to be successful, enticing first tier makers to begin production in this newer product segment. The first quarter was also characterized by increased movement of Taiwanese manufacturing to China. In addition to a review of the Greater Chinese notebook PC industry in the first quarter of 2002, this report will examine the motivators behind the above trends, as well as discuss the higher degree of separation between electronic manufacturing service providers and own-brand businesses. Finally, MIC will supply an in-depth assessment of Taiwanese manufacturers' activity in China and forecasts for the remainder of 2002.

List of Figures
Figure 1 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Production Volume and Value, 1Q 1999 - 1Q 2002

Figure 2 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Production Volume by Tier, 1Q2001-1Q2002

Figure 3 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Production Value by Tier, 1Q2001-1Q2002

Figure 4 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's ASP by Tier, 1Q2001-1Q2002

Figure 5 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Full System and Barebone Production Value, 2000- 1Q2002

Figure 6 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Full System and Barebone Shipment Volume by Tier, 2000-1Q2002

Figure 7 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Full System and Barebone Shipment Volume Share by Tier, 2000-1Q2002

Figure 8 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Price Points, 1Q2001-1Q2002

Figure 9 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Shipment Price Points, 1Q2001-1Q2002

Figure 10 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Shipment Price Points, 1Q2001-1Q2002

Figure 11 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Share by Price Points, 1Q2001-1Q2002

Figure 12 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Shipment Share by Price Points, 1Q2001-1Q02002

Figure 13 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Shipment Share by Price Points, 2000-2001

Figure 14 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Production Volume by Business Type, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 15 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First-Tier Makers' Production Volume by Business Type, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 16 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Production Volume by Business Type, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 17 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Volume by Destination Area, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 18 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Shipment Share by Destination Area, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 19 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Shipment Volume by Destination Area, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 20 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Shipment Share by Destination Area, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 21 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Shipment Volume by Destination Area, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 22 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Shipment Share by Destination Area, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 23 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Product Mix, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 24 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Product Mix Percentage, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 25 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Product Mix, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 26 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Product Mix Percentage, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 27 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Product Mix, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 28 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Product Mix Percentage, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 29 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Displays by Screen Size, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 30 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Screen Size Ratios, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 31 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Displays by Screen Size , 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 32 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's First Tier Makers' Screen Size Ratios, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 33 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Displays by Screen Size , 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 34 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Second Tier Makers' Screen Size Ratios, 1Q 2001-1Q 2002

Figure 35 The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry's Production Share by Area, 2001-1Q 2002

List of Tables
Table 1 Major Greater Chinese Notebook PC Manufacturers' Ranking by Tier, 2000-1Q2002

The Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry in 2Q 2002

With signs of recovery present in the first quarter of 2002, market demand will likely make a comeback. Once the market warms up in the second quarter, the shrinking price gap between notebook PCs and desktop PCs will stimulate a higher ratio of desktop replacement, giving notebooks further room for growth. The Greater Chinese notebook PC industry production volume will increase 27.7% year-on-year, reaching 4.3 million units, in the second quarter of 2002. Due to falling ASP, second quarter production value will only rise 11.9% to US$3.3 billion.

Greater Chinese Notebook PC Industry in 2H 2002

In the second half of 2002, the rising prices of LCD panels, RAM, and other key components, and wide scale replacement of the P3-M by the P4-M, will halt the fall of ASP. This development makes the degree of customer demand quite unclear. Also, with large PC manufacturers clearing out their inventories, shipment volume will increase 7.7% year-on-year to 8.5 million units in the second half of 2002, while production value will decrease 7.8% to US$6.1 billion. For the entire year of 2002, shipment volume will grow 20%, production value will edge up 6%, while ASP will shrink by 12%.

Desktop Solutions Notebook PC

The success of desktop solution notebooks hinges on faster development of desktop CPU and a lower price. After Intel lowers the price of the P4-M, consumers may opt for notebooks with mobile CPUs rather than desktop solutions models. However, the DeskNote will be better able to compete with traditional notebooks than other desktop solution notebooks because it is cheaper.

For brand-name notebook PC companies, production of desktop solution notebooks and DeskNotes holds low profit margins. In addition to cost and performance, brand-name manufacturers?willingness to produce these models will be a key factor in the long-term development of this notebook concept.

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