US President Donald Trump has revealed plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on key trade partners, with announcements expected as soon as next week. Speaking alongside Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Trump stated, “We will take action on Monday or Tuesday, possibly through a press conference. If they impose tariffs on us, we will impose tariffs on them.” According to reports from MarketWatch, possible targets for these tariffs include China, Taiwan, and India, all of which maintain significant trade relations with the US.

The concept of reciprocal tariffs has been a central theme in Trump's first term and remains a focal point of his 2024 reelection campaign. These measures are also outlined in the Heritage Foundation's “Project 2025”. The strategy, if implemented, could prioritize countries with which the US faces substantial trade deficits and higher tariff rates. The most immediate targets include China and India, followed by the European Union, Thailand, Taiwan, and Vietnam. While tariffs may reduce reliance on foreign imports, they could also escalate inflation within the US, which is already grappling with rising consumer prices. However, trade advocates argue that such measures are crucial for rebuilding the US industrial base and fostering long-term economic growth.

For Taiwan's semiconductor industry, US tariffs have limited short-term impact as chips are intermediate goods, with direct exports to the US at just 2%, according to the Taipei-based research institute Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC). A bigger concern is whether a future Trump administration might use antitrust pressure to shift control to the US, similar to Biden's CHIPS Act-driven push for TSMC's US expansion. While subsidy cuts are likely, markets like Japan, Germany, and the EU offer new incentives. For Taiwan's ICT sector, firms still producing in China must rethink relocation, while those in Southeast Asia or Mexico may need US-based production to avoid future trade risks. Ultimately, cost considerations will dictate production shifts, with servers more likely to see partial US assembly to serve the market efficiently.