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The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry, 1Q 2004 and Beyond

July 12, 2004 / Annabelle Hsu

28 Page, Statistics Report

US$1,150 (Single User License)

Abstract

Slack PC markets and lower than expected LCD TV sales held LCD panel shipments to 12.6 million units in the first quarter of 2004. The 7.1% quarterly growth rate was the first instance since the fourth quarter of 2002 that shipments recorded single-digit growth. Shipment value saw stronger gains due to affect of the panel shortage on panel prices. Looking to the second quarter, glass substrate shortages should prevent full use of the capacity on fifth generation lines. However, capacity misallocations seen in the first quarter will be redressed in the second quarter. With a rise in demand, second quarter volume should increase. Looser panel supply will also slow value growth.

List of Topics
Quarterly shipment volume forecast for Taiwanese TFT LCD panel industry up to 2Q 2005. Special discussion near-term panel prices. 1Q 2004 review and tier breakdown and analysis of volume, value, ASP, product mix, and panel applications; review of industry concentration and major maker volume rankings. Major player competitive profiles.

AUO, CMO, CPT, Hannstar, IDTech, QDI

List of Figures
Figure 1 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Volume, 1Q 2002 - 1Q 2004

Figure 2 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Volume by Tier, 1Q 2002 - 1Q 2004

Figure 3 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Value and ASP, 1Q 2002 - 1Q 2004

Figure 4 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Value by Tier, 1Q 2002 - 1Q 2004

Figure 5 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's ASP by Tier, 1Q 2002 - 1Q 2004

Figure 6 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Volume by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 7 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Share by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 8 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's First Tier Shipment Volume by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 9 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's First Tier Shipment Share by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 10 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's Second Tier Shipments by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 11 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's Second Tier Shipment Share by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 12 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipments by Application, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 13 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipments Share by Application, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 14 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's First Tier Shipments by Application, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 15 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's First Tier Shipment Share by Application, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 16 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Second Tier Shipments by Application, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 17 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Second Tier Shipment Share by Application, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 18 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Monitor Panel Shipments by Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 19 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Monitor Panel Shipment Share by Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 20 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Notebook PC Panel Shipments by Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 21 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Notebook PC Panel Shipment Share by Size, 1Q 2003 - 1Q 2004

Figure 22 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Volume, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2005

List of Tables
Table 1 Major Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Manufacturer Ranking, 1Q 2002 - 1Q 2004

LCD TV markets fell short of estimates in 2003. Though LCD TV panel prices declined 3%~5% in the first quarter of 2004, the LCD TV market failed to respond. The third quarter is generally the peak quarter in consumer markets. Combined with the business opportunities generated by the Olympics in August, it is hoped that the second quarter will offer continued growth, driving increases in LCD TV panel shipments.

However, the industry is facing unbridled expansion of panel capacity coupled with the second quarter 2005 commencement of mass production on sixth generation lines, whose primary focus is LCD TV panels. If LCD TV markets fail to heat up in the third quarter of 2004 while supply continues to swell, dramatic declines in LCD TV panel prices will likely surface.

In the second quarter of 2004 shipments from Taiwanese large-size panel makers should increase, due to mass production from fifth generation lines. However, with LCD TV sales failing to meet expectations, makers will likely shift large amounts of capacity to panel for LCD monitor and notebook PC applications. The resulting upswing in supply of panel is expected to curb the growth of LCD monitor and notebook PC panel ASP.

The second quarter is generally the slack season in PC markets. In the first quarter LCD monitor panel ASP already reached between US$245 and US$250, levels not seen since the second quarter of 2002, putting the brakes on buying fever in the LCD monitor market. With supply shortages ending, and demand slumping, LCD panel ASP is unlikely rise.

Appendix

Glossary of Terms

ASP		Average Selling Price
TFT LCD		Thin-Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display

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