Abstract
2010 was a crucial year for 3D TV development, with various international TV brands launching new 3D models and vigorously engaged in market exploration and testing. Therefore, it is of great significance to forecast the future development of the 3D TV market by looking at the actual sales figures at present. The MIC utilizes the Gompertz growth model to calculate and forecast 3D TV market volume. Furthermore, by means of the market volume forecast, this research will analyze the development and product life cycle of 3D TV in the next few years.
3D TV Sales Volume to Enter Growth Stage in Next Few Years; 2011 to 2013 as a Critical Breakthrough Phase
At present, the prices of key 3D TV components, such as 240Hz frame rate LED (Light Emitting Diode) backlight, four-millisecond response time TFT-LCD, and film pattern retarder, are still relatively high, leading to the high price tags of 3D TV products and consequently lukewarm sales volume. Therefore, it is expected that various TV brands will seek to downgrade the specifications of some 3D TV models, so as to cut back on costs and lower 3D TV price tags. However, this development is expected to significantly compromise the quality of 3D images, therefore not necessarily contributing to the future progress of 3D TV. Whether the downgrade of 3D image quality will be favorably received in the target price range of US$2,000 to US$3,000 remains to be seen.
The MIC's 3D TV market volume forecast is conducted by means of the Gompertz growth model, mainly based on the figures derived from the model and adjusted in line with the differences in sales and the vendors' attitudes to the development of this product.
It is forecasted that the 3D TV market volume will be able to reach approximately 12.10 million units in 2011 and nearly 129.14 million units in 2015. The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the period 2010 - 2015 is projected at 109.4%.
In terms of product life cycle, it is projected that 3D TV will enter the growth stage in the next few years. Only if 3D TV achieves breakthrough in the period 2011 - 2013 will costs and price tags drop without compromising the quality of 3D images, thereby ushering in the stage of rapid growth. If said development comes true, it is expected that the 3D TV market will gradually transform from a niche to mainstream TV market.
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Figure 5
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3D TV Life Cycle, 2009- 2015
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Source: MIC, January 2011
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Appendix
Research Scope
This research utilizes the Gompertz growth model to estimate the 3D TV market penetration rate and thereby deduce the 3D TV market volume.
Definition
Product Life Cycle
Onkvisit and Shaw (1989) define a product's life cycle in terms of changes in sales, which come in four phases: 1) Introduction: slow sales volume to start; 2) Growth: sales volume sees significant increase; 3) Maturity: sales volume peaks and stabilizes; 4) Decline: sales volume sees gradual decrease.
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Figure 6
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Product Life Cycle Model
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Source: MIC, January 2011
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Glossary of Terms
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3D
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Three-Dimensional
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CAGR
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Compound Annual Growth Rate
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FPD
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Flat Panel Display
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LED
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Light Emitting Diode
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MAPE
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Mean Absolute Percent Error
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TFT-LCD
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Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display
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TV
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Television
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