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Outlook for the Worldwide Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Industry in 2010 and Beyond

December 25, 2009 / Jane Yeh

18 Page, Topical Report

US$1,820 (Single User License)

Abstract

In early 2009, panel manufacturers significantly reduced production in light of weak economic forecasts. However, end-market demand proved to be stronger than the forecasts of manufacturers. Orders gradually returned. In 2010, high-generation production lines will continue to come online around the world. Japanese and Korean manufacturers are accelerating their deployment in the Chinese market, while a series of mergers has occurred among Taiwanese manufacturers. These factors have created a large number of variables for panel industry development in 2010. This report analyzes key development trends in the global large-area TFT-LCD panel industry in 2010, and provides long-term shipment forecasts.

Table of Contents
1. Worldwide Large-size TFT-LCD Panel Shipment

1.1 LCD TV Panel Demand Stimulates Industry Rebound

1.2 Asia-Pacific Market Demand to Be Major Growth Driver

1.3 Worldwide and Taiwanese Large-size TFT-LCD Panel Shipment Forecast

2. Opportunities and Challenges for the Global Large-Size TFT-LCD Panel Industry

2.1 Emerging Products Stimulate Panel Demand

2.1.1 Penetration Rate of LED Backlight Products Gradually Increasing

2.1.2 Windows 7 to Generate Enterprise Replacement Wave

2.1.3 3D Applications Push Improvements in Panel Specs

2.2 Many Challenges Remain for Panel Industry Operations

2.2.1 Panel Prices Hover around Cost Levels

2.2.2 Adjustments in Supply/Demand Will Test Manufacturers' Profitability

2.2.3 Emergence of LED Backlight Units Gives Rise to New Value Systems

2.3 Chinese Market Deployment: Opportunities and Challenges

2.3.1 Structure of China's LCD TV Industry Beneficial for Taiwanese Manufacturers' Development

2.3.2 Chinese Government Policies Affect Industry Development

MIC Perspective

Appendix

List of Topics
Worldwide large-size TFT-LCD panel application products' shipment forecast until 2014, including notebook PC, LCD monitor, and LCD TV

Worldwide and Taiwanese large-size TFT-LCD panel industry shipment volume and value forecast until 2014

LED adoption forecast among main large-size TFT-LCD panel application products until 2011

LED backlight industry value chain analysis

Development of 3D features

Chinese market and industry development, including international manufacturers' deployment in China and the Chinese government's policies and strategies for the development of the display panel industry

Companies and organizations analyzed or mentioned in the report include: AOC, AUO, Blu-ray Disc Association, BOE, BS, CEC, Changhong, Chi Mei Lighting, Citizen, CMO, CPT, Cree, Epistar, Everlight, Formosa Epitaxy, Funai, FVO, GIO, Hisense, IPS Alpha, Konka, Lextar, LG Display, LG Innotek, Light House, Lite-On, Microsoft, Nichia, Opto Tech, Osram, Philips, Philips Lumileds, Rainbow, Rohm, Samsung, Semco, Seoul Semi, Sharp, Skyworth, Sony, TCL, Toshiba, Toyota Gosei, Vizio

List of Figures
Figure 1 Worldwide Large-size TFT-LCD Panel Application Products' Shipment Volume, 2008 - 2014

Figure 2 Worldwide and Taiwanese Large-size TFT-LCD Panel Industry Shipment Volume, 2009 - 2014

Figure 3 Worldwide and Taiwanese Large-size TFT-LCD Panel Industry Shipment Value, 2009 - 2014

Figure 4 LED Backlight Adoption among Main Large-size TFT-LCD Panel Application Products: Shipment Volume and Adoption Ratio

Figure 5 Price Changes of Mainstream-size TFT-LCD Panels, 1Q 2008 - 3Q 2009

Figure 6 Worldwide Large-size TFT-LCD Panel Supply and Demand, 3Q 2008 - 3Q 2010

Figure 7 Backlight LED Industry Value Chain

Figure 8 Worldwide LCD TV Market Share by Region and Regional Market Shares of Major Brands, 2008 - 2009

List of Tables
Table 1 Impact of Major 3D Technologies on Image Quality

Table 2 New Large-size TFT-LCD Panel Production Lines, 2009 - 2012

Table 3 Changes in Chinese Import Tariffs for Panel Components, 2008 - 2009

Capacity Allocation and Supply Chain Relationships Affect Future Development of Manufacturers

Even though it is already relatively certain that global panel production capacity will be larger than demand in 2010, panel manufacturers continue to bring new capacity online in order to move along with the size increases of LCD TV panels and to increase future panel production efficiency. They hope that in this way they can improve their product competitiveness in the future. However, it is not likely that in the future panel prices will increase significantly, and panel prices will continue to hover around cost levels. Panel manufacturers' room for profitability is thus limited. In the future, panel manufacturers have to allocate capacity in such way that they can maintain a stable capacity utilization ratio, and cooperate with suppliers in areas such as R&D and design to lower costs. This will offer opportunities to increase product profits and improve overall profitability. Faced with new LED suppliers, panel manufacturers will also need to consider how to cooperate, in order to avoid the breaks in the supply chain that occurred in 2009.

Maintain Growth with Product Value-Added

The main image display specifications of large-size panels can already satisfy the demand of the majority of consumers. Furthermore, panel prices are quite low. When buying LCD panel application products, specifications are no longer the main consideration for consumers. In the future, growth momentum for large-size panel application products will shift from replacement to value-add. Features such as LED backlight modules and 3D display features increase the added value of panels. Product demand can be increased through function improvements.

Policies of the Chinese Government Will Be Closely Watched in the Future

China in the future will become the single largest market in terms of panel demand. The country is also a center of attention in terms of future panel capacity development. Currently, Chinese panel manufacturers BOE and FVO have already commenced construction on 7G or higher production sites. Furthermore, in consideration of import tariffs and logistical costs, Japanese and Korean manufacturers have already started to look for cooperation with local governments in China. The Taiwanese government has not yet approved investments in high-generation panel production in China by Taiwanese manufacturers. In the future, LCD TV panel mass production schedules in China and import tariff adjustments by the Chinese government will influence panel manufacturers' competitiveness in the Chinese market.

Appendix

Glossary of Terms

LED		Light Emitting Diode
CULV		Consumer Ultra Low Voltage
CRT		Cathode Ray Tube
LCM		Liquid Crystal display Module
CCFL		Cold Cathode Fluorescent Lamp

List of Companies

AOC
AUO
Blu-ray Disc Association
BOE
BS
CEC
Changhong
Chi Mei Lighting
Citizen
CMO
CPT
Cree
Epistar
Everlight
Formosa Epitaxy
Funai
FVO
GIO
Hisense
IPS Alpha
Konka
Lextar
LG Display
LG Innotek
Light House
Lite-On
Microsoft
Nichia
Opto Tech
Osram
Philips
Philips Lumileds
Rainbow
Rohm
Samsung
Semco
Seoul Semi
Sharp
Skyworth
Sony
TCL
Toshiba
Toyota Gosei
Vizio

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