Abstract

Mainstream Applications and Technologies Facing Maturity; New Applications and Technologies Entering Growth Stage

As seen in the above analysis, shipment value CAGR of worldwide small- and medium-sized FPD applications in the period 2008-2013 is forecast to reach 4.3%, while shipment volume CAGR is forecast to be 2.4%. It is evident that worldwide small- and medium-sized FPD application shipment value and volume growth are slowing down. The main applications and mainstream technologies have already entered or are about to enter their maturity stage.

The forecast for worldwide small- and medium-sized FPD application product lifecycle development showed that applications in the late stage of their growth period and moving to maturity period include mobile phone-main display, PND display, MP3 player & PMP display, car display, car audio display, and photo printer display. Furthermore, applications in maturity include DSC display, portable DVD player display, industrial device display (MSTN-LCD) and industrial device display (TN-LCD). Finally, applications in maturity and moving towards decline include: mobile phone-sub display, DVC display, car instrument display, portable game device display, clock display, calculator display and industrial device display (LTPS TFT-LCD).

As for the lifecycle development of worldwide small- and medium-sized FPD technologies, technologies in late stage of their growth period and moving to maturity include a-Si TFT-LCD and LTPS TFT-LCD. Furthermore, technologies in maturity and moving decline stage include: TN-LCD, MST-LCD, full color PM-OLED, and area color PM-OLED.

Overall, worldwide small- and medium-sized FPD applications and technologies are in the late stage of their growth period and moving towards maturity. As shipment value CAGR is slightly higher than shipment volume CAGR, applications and technologies will face display performance upgrade trends. As for the possible reasons for this trend, mobile phone-main displays are continuing to develop towards larger sizes and better display features. Also, new emerging application market demand, such as netbook display, e-book reader display and digital photo frame display which feature high module prices, are also important in this development trend.

Even though mainstream applications and technologies are faced with the maturity stage of their lifecycle, featuring slowing growth and declining profits, new applications (such as netbook display, e-book reader display, digital photo frame display) and new technologies (AM-OLED, e-paper display) with significant development potential are entering the market and gradually moving towards the growth stage in their development.

In the coming years, the worldwide small- and medium-sized FPD industry is facing a key turning point in terms of transitions between new and old. The mainstream applications and technologies are already fairly mature. The emergence of new applications and technologies at this time will help the small- and medium-sized FPD industry to maintain and renew its lifecycle development.

Mobile Phone Displays Account for Almost 50%; Netbook, E-Book Reader, DPF Displays Have Growth Potential

Looking at changes in small- and medium-sized FPD application shipment volume and value in the period 2008-2013, mobile phone displays (main display+sub display) account for almost 50.0% of total worldwide small- and medium-sized FPD application shipment volume and value. They are still the main FPD application. However, compared to MIC's previous forecast published in 2008, a slight decline has become evident.

As for technologies used in mobile phone displays, in 2008 a-Si TFT-LCD accounted for 30.7%, and LTPS TFT-LCD accounted for 16.3%. In 2013, the share of a-Si TFT-LCD is expected to reach 35.0%, and LTPS TFT-LCD is expected to reach 20.4%. By 2013, almost 75.0% of mobile phone displays (main-display+sub-display) are expected to be equipped with TFT-LCD technology. The mobile phone market will thus continue to be very important for production capacity allocation and product development of small- and medium-sized TFT-LCD panel manufacturers.

However, mobile phone displays (main-display+sub-display) are already in the late stages of their growth and moving towards maturity. This means that in the future mobile phone displays will lack explosive growth. Panel manufacturers' production capacities and cost competitiveness have become the most important considerations for mobile phone vendors in their selection of cooperation partners in the FPD supply chain.

First-tier FPD manufacturers continue to gobble up the majority of mobile phone display orders. Second-tier and third-tier FDP manufacturers, in an effort to ensure their survival and maintain profits, will aggressively try to develop new application markets with significant development potential.

From MIC's forecasts it can be seen that netbook display, e-book reader display and digital photo frame display are the applications with the highest market growth potential. In 2010, their shipment volumes are expected to reach 34.18 million units, 3.02 million units, and 15.33 million units respectively. Their shipment volume CAGR in the period 2008-2013 is expected to be 28.6%, 57.7% and 27.5% respectively. Their shipment value CAGR during the same period is expected to reach 24.3%, 58.3% and 22.0% respectively.

In recent years, major FPD manufacturers have started to aggressively develop the netbook display, e-book reader display and digital photo frame display markets. This development could be clearly seen at the FPD International 2008 exhibition, held in Yokohama, Japan in October 2008. At the exhibition, participating manufacturers aggressively exhibited netbook display, e-book reader display and digital photo frame display products.

TFT-LCD Remains Mainstream Technology with over 50% Share; AM-OLED, E-paper Display Have Growth Potential

Regarding changes in small- and medium-sized FPD technology shipment volume and value in the period 2008-2013, the shipment volume share of TFT-LCD (a-Si TFT-LCD+LTPS TFT-LCD) already exceeds 50.0%, while the shipment value share of TFT-LCD (a-Si TFT-LCD+LTPS TFT-LCD) already approaches 85.0%. TFT-LCD will continue to be the dominant technology among small- and medium-sized FPD technologies. According to the forecasts, there are not yet replacement technologies which can compete with TFT-LCD.

However, in its lifecycle, TFT-LCD is already in the late stage of its growth period moving towards maturity. TFT-LCD technology has thus reached a relatively mature level of development, and it will not see explosive growth in the future. If replacement technologies emerge which have equivalent or better display features than TFT-LCD, and can meet green demand in terms of power-saving and environment-friendliness, FPD vendors could start to conduct R&D on these technologies and make plans for commercialization.

MIC believes that AM-OLED and e-paper display technologies have the most development potential behind TFT-LCD. Furthermore, MIC forecasts that AM-OLED and e-paper display will reach a shipment volume of 32.33 million units and 3.02 million units respectively in 2010. Their shipment volume CAGRs for the period 2008-2013 are forecast to reach 63.1% and 57.7%. Their shipment value CAGRs in 2008-2013 are forecast to reach 56.2% and 58.3% respectively.

FPD panel manufacturers are expected to aggressively invest in AM-OLED and e-paper display technologies. This trend could be seen at the FPD International 2008, which was held in Yokohama, Japan in October 2008. Participating FPD vendors aggressively exhibited AM-OLED and e-paper display technologies.

Appendix

Research Scope

This research report provides forecasts of the worldwide small- and medium-sized FPD market scale. The research scope includes display technologies such as TN-LCD, MSTN-LCD, CSTN-LCD, a-Si TFT-LCD, LTPS TFT-LCD, Full Color PM- OLED, Area Color PM- OLED, AM-OLED, e-paper display. The research scope includes application products such as mobile phone, DSC, DVC, PND, MP3 player, PMP, netbook PC, e-book reader, digital photo frame, portable DVD player, car audio, car display, car instrument, portable game device, industrial device, clock, calculator.

Definitions

Small- and Medium-sized FPD Panel

Small- and medium-sized FPD panel in this research report is defined as follows: display panels with an active area diagonally measuring 10.x" or less.

Product Lifecycle Analysis

Onkvisit and Shaw, in their book "Product Life Cycles and Product Management" (Quorum, New York, 1989), examine characteristics of the four stages in product lifecycles: introduction stage, growth stage, maturity stage, and decline stage. Sales revenue trends in the four stages are defined as follows: (1) in the introduction stage sales revenue gradually increases; (2) in the growth stage, sales revenue initially increases gradually, then increases quickly, followed by gradual increases; (3) in the maturity stage, sales revenue is stable; (4) in the decline stage, sales revenue permanently decreases.

This research report uses shipment value CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) in place of sales revenue as basis for analysis of the four stages in the product lifecycle: (1) in the introduction stage, shipment value CAGR is low; (2) in the growth stage, shipment value CAGR initially increases gradually, followed by rapid increases and then gradual increases; (3) in the maturity stage, shipment value CAGR moves towards 0.x%; (4) in the decline stage, shipment value CAGR is negative.

Then, shipment volume CAGR and shipment value CAGR are compared to determine whether an application product is facing risks related to price pressure or price competition. Through this method, scenarios can be devised as to the product lifecycle stages panel application products will go through during the coming years and which key competition issues application products will have to face.

This industry analysis model includes both quantitative and qualitative aspects. Using this comprehensive model, the product lifecycle scenarios for different application products and technologies are completed.

Quantitative analysis includes the following:

1.  If the difference between shipment volume CAGR and shipment value CAGR is larger than 20 percentage points, a product sector can be said to feature price competition.

2.  If the difference between shipment volume CAGR and shipment value CAGR is between 10 and 20 percentage points, a product sector can be said to feature price pressure.

3.  If the difference between shipment volume CAGR and shipment value CAGR is close to 10 percentage points, industry experts are consulted regarding current price competition for a certain product. After these consultations, a determination is made regarding whether a product features price competition or price pressure.

4.  For products or technologies which are in the rapid growth phase, price competition or price pressure are not the focus areas of competition. Instead, key issues are products' unique applications, special specifications, distinct niche market positioning etc.

5.  For products or technologies in the decline stage, price competition or price pressure are no longer the focus areas of competition.

Qualitative analysis includes visits to product vendors, consultations with industry experts etc.

If there are significant conflicts between qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, a revision model can be adopted to forecast numbers or the conclusions of the original model can be maintained without revising the forecast numbers.

The abovementioned principles include experience factors and scientific aspects, but these are relative and not absolute. Therefore, even if the initial assessment concludes price competition or price pressure, this has to be verified by consulting industry experts.

Glossary of Terms

List of Companies