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The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry, 1H 2004 and Beyond

August 23, 2004 / Annabelle Hsu

23 Page, Statistics Report

US$1,150 (Single User License)

Abstract

In the second quarter of 2004, customers aggressively released orders to due to concerns that a seasonality-induced panel shortage would surface in the second half of 2004. Coupled with improved yield rates on fifth-generation lines, Taiwanese large size LCD panel makers reaped impressive gains in both volume and value. Shipment volume reached a record high of approximately 14.8 million units while shipment value stood at around US$3.9 billion. In the third quarter of 2004, as contract arrangements have yet to be firmed up and second-quarter inventory pile-ups need addressing, short-term oversupply is likely to occur. Panel prices are thus expected to continue falling until the end of the third quarter of 2004.

List of Topics

Quarterly shipment volume forecast for Taiwanese TFT LCD panel industry up to 3Q 2005. Special discussion on near-term panel prices. First half review and tier breakdown and analysis of volume, value, ASP, product mix, and panel applications including LCD monitor, notebook PC and LCD TV; review of industry concentration and major maker volume rankings; major player competitive profiles.

AUO, CMO, CPT, Hannstar, IDTech, QDI, Quanta

List of Figures
Figure 1 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Volume, 2Q 2002 - 2Q 2004

Figure 2 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Volume by Tier, 2Q 2002 - 2Q 2004

Figure 3 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Value and ASP, 2Q 2002 - 2Q 2004

Figure 4 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Value by Tier, 2Q 2002 - 2Q 2004

Figure 5 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's ASP by Tier, 2Q 2002 - 2Q 2004

Figure 6 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Volume by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 7 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Share by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 8 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's First Tier Shipment Volume by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 9 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's First Tier Shipment Share by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 10 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's Second Tier Shipments by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 11 The Taiwanese TFT LCD Panel Industry's Second Tier Shipment Share by Screen Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 12 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipments by Application, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 13 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Share by Application, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 14 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's First Tier Shipments by Application, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 15 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's First Tier Shipment Share by Application, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 16 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Second Tier Shipments by Application, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 17 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Second Tier Shipment Share by Application, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 18 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Monitor Panel Shipments by Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 19 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Monitor Panel Shipment Share by Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 20 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Notebook PC Panel Shipments by Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 21 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Notebook PC Panel Shipment Share by Size, 1Q 2003 - 2Q 2004

Figure 22 The Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Industry's Shipment Volume, 3Q 2003 - 3Q 2005

List of Tables
Table 1 Major Taiwanese Large Size TFT LCD Panel Manufacturer Ranking, 2Q 2002 - 2Q 2004

Panel Prices Slow to Stabilize

At the end of the second quarter of 2004, panel customers raised inventory levels to avoid the tight supply that ravaged through the third quarter of 2003. This move is expected to dramatically dent panel makers' shipments in July and August 2004. As these customers continue to clear off inventories of panels procured at higher prices in the beginning of the third quarter, price reductions are not expected to be reflected immediately in the end market. Price-induced demand will thus be further stalled, dampening seasonal factors that traditionally abound in the third quarter. As a result, panel glut is anticipated to persist in the short term while panel prices are expected to stabilize only after the end of the third quarter of 2004.

Shipment Value Going Strong

Taiwanese panel shipment value totaled approximately US$7.2 billion in the first half of 2004, growing 127% compared with the first half of 2003 and accounting for 88.2% of total 2003 shipment value. This demonstrates that the Taiwanese panel industry has expanded significantly, driven by an increase in both volume and prices. Despite the projected sharp decline in prices arising from oversupply in the second half, Taiwanese shipment value is unlikely to suffer an annual fall in 2004.

Moreover, collective profits of the top five panel makers in the first half of 2004 have exceeded that seen throughout 2003. As panel prices are likely to stay above cost in the third quarter and then level off in the fourth quarter, Taiwanese shipment value and profits are both anticipated to outpace those registered in 2003.

Appendix

Glossary of Terms

5G		Fifth Generation
ASP		Average Selling Price
TFT LCD		Thin-Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display

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