Computing - Server
The Chinese Economy: A Bubble on the Brink of Bursting?
May 10, 2004 / Sean Kao
5 Page, Radar

Abstract

While other countries face deficits, Chinese government revenues reached two trillion RMB in 2003, approximately 20% of China's GDP. GDP grew 9.1% to around 11.7 trillion RMB in 2003 and again rose 9.7% in the first quarter of 2004. Auspicious as these figures seemed, a raft of measures were taken to cool the economy at the end of April: China's central bank once again raised the required deposit-reserve rate, to 7.5%, while investment in steel, aluminum, cement, real estate, and some governmental agencies will be under tighter control. Premier Wen Jia-Bao publicly announced these control measures and halted Jiangsu Tieben Steel & Iron Company's large-scale steel mill project. Meanwhile some banks have suspended credit services. These attempts have cast a shadow over whether IT and communications industries can sustain the growth momentum gained since the first quarter of 2004.

For IT hardware and communications equipment makers, the more immediate issue is whether China's stabilization strategies will impact market demand and industry growth. The Chinese government still needs to relieve unemployment through moderate economic development, which is expected to grow by 8%. While considering a raise in cost of capital to show determination, the government has preferred to launch administrative investigations and enact credit controls in certain overheating segments. Additionally, market demand in PC and mobile phone sectors are showing reasonable growth and IT hardware and communications equipment industries are not classified as overheating. Judging from these factors, the impact on these industries is expected to be limited. However, the key to how the economy plays out ultimately hinges on how the government addresses expectations of RMB revaluation and the flow of hot money.

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