According to MIC (Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute), an ICT industry research institute based in Taipei, as Microsoft plans to terminate the support for Windows XP in 2014, the global personal PC market is expected to see a next wave of replacement demand for commercial models, thereby slowing down the market declines. MIC estimates that the global PC shipment volume will decline 1.7% in 2014 compared to 2013, reaching about 291 million units. Although the year-on-year growth is anticipated to turn positive in 2015, the growth momentum will remain relatively weak and market volume will only manage to sustain at the similar level.
Affected by the weakening global economy and the accelerated tablet replacement effect on personal PCs, MIC predicts that global tablet shipment volume will reach approximately 296 million units in 2013, down 7.5% year-on-year. Dragged by the major declines in the US and European consumer markets, notebook PC shipment volumes is expected to score at merely 173 million units in 2013, down 10% year-on-year, marking the first time that notebook PCs see a higher decline rate than desktop PCs. Notebook PCs' share of the total personal PC shipment is expected to drop from 60.1% in 2012 to 58.5% in 2013.
According to Charles Chou, senior industry consultant of MIC, following the less-than-expected shipment performance in the first half of 2013, the end-market demand in the second half of 2013 is likely to be fueled by the continuous introduction of new operating systems and specifications. Therefore, shipment volume in the second half is expected to grow considerably compared to the first half of 2013.
Due to several advantages of tablets such as ease of use and high mobility, the user scenarios for tablets are variedly developed as vendors have continued to develop various types of integrated and transformable products to increase consumers' reliance on tablets. MIC estimates that shipment volume of the global tablet industry will top around 280 million units in 2014, up 26.3% compared to 2013.
Spurred by the strong growth of small-sized (normally 7") and low-priced products, the shipment volume of the tablet industry is to grow considerably in 2013, breaking 200 million mark to around 223 million units. The tablet industry is expected to see a 58.4% year-on-year growth in 2013, with its share reaching over 50% of the total mobile devices shipped. Although the low-priced products are expected to help stimulate the purchase demand in the tablet market in the short run, the growth momentum is projected to slow down in the post-2015 as consumers become decreasingly price-sensitive to low-priced products.
In the second half of 2013, a slew of branded vendors have planned to launch their Windows 8/RT products. In addition, following the remarkable sales of low-priced tablets in the past two quarters, branded vendors have been actively planning to launch more low-priced models. Therefore, MIC estimates that there will be several tablets with screen sizes ranging from 7" to 9" launched prior to the release of new model by Apple. They will become one of major growth factors to bolster tablet shipments in the second half of 2013.
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About MIC
Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), based in Taipei, Taiwan, was founded in 1987. MIC is Taiwan's premier IT industry research and consulting firm providing intelligence, in-depth analysis, and strategic consulting services on global IT product and technology trends, focusing on markets and industries in Asia-Pacific. MIC is part of the Institute for Information Industry. https://mic.iii.org.tw/english