- As the locale most critically affected by the SARS epidemic, China is forecasted to see 15% to 20% shrinkage in the country's PC market.  Considering that most notebook PCs are sold in the corporate market, the necessity for businesses to carry on operations will sustain growth of notebook PC sales, shielding notebook PC shipments from the impact of SARS seen in the Chinese desktop PC market. Given the limited volume of notebook PC shipments that the Chinese market can absorb, China accounts for just 3% to 4% of worldwide market share. Provided SARS does not spread further, the affect of the epidemic on worldwide notebook PC demand will be limited.

In the second quarter, SARS will not cause any noticeable change in market demand, as epidemic related supply-side shut downs are unlikely to occur. Taiwanese notebook PC shipment volume will continue to gain in the second quarter, growing by 2% to 5% from the first quarter. As prices continue to fall, shipment value will drop by a scant 1% to 3%.

Dramatic price cuts of Intel's Centrino platform slated for June of 2003 are expected to correspondingly lower prices for Centrino-equipped notebooks. In turn, the quickening pace of Centrino penetration will likely further drive consumer demand.

Over 60% of Greater Chinese notebook PC makers' production facilities are already concentrated in China, and this proportion will continue to increase. Even though the affect of the epidemic on market demand is limited, manufacturing is exposed to a certain degree of threat. If makers respond adroitly, third quarter Greater Chinese notebook PC maker' shipment volume is forecasted to increase by 10% to 15% over the second quarter of 2003.