According to research of the Taipei-based Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) conducted as part of the ITIS project, among the major LCD panel application products, worldwide LCD monitor shipment volume is expected to reach 154 million units in 2009, declining 3.2%. In the coming five years growth is expected for this application product, with shipment forecast to reach 156 million units in 2010 and 171 million units in 2014. Worldwide LCD TV shipment volume is expected to reach 127 million units in 2009, growing 24.8%. LCD TV shipment volume is also expected to experience growth in the coming five years, with shipment forecast to reach 152 million units in 2010 and 196 million units in 2014.
Large-sized LCD panel prices in 2009 have already fallen to a low point, and there is only limited room for more price declines in the future. Aside from Korean companies, many panel manufacturers are currently still facing losses. According to MIC, the main reason for the low prices is the slowdown in size increases of major application products. For example, 15.4" sizes are still mainstream among notebook PCs, and the market launch of the CULV platform initiated a mainstream position of 11.x". Even though the shipment share of 20.x" to 23.x" LCD monitor products continues to increase and these products have an opportunity to become future mainstream products, slow development has led to the fact that 19.x" is still the mainstream size among LCD monitors. Size increases among LCD TVs have slowed down even more. Currently, 32" is still the main size for LCD TVs, with their share of total shipment more than 35%.
Future TFT-LCD growth momentum will move from quantity-oriented development to quality-focused development, while application fields will still mainly be notebook PC, LCD monitor and LCD TV. Growth momentum will come from added-value applications. The replacement effect of market scale expansion will gradually slow down. As for future large-sized panel development trends such as LED backlight, 3D, touch and green trends, the growth momentum of LED backlight will be the most significant, and will influence the development of the panel supply chain.
According to MIC Senior Industry Analyst Charles Chou, "new panel production capacity will continue to come online in 2010. However, production of application product panels is moving towards higher-generation production lines; how to increase the capacity utilization rate of higher-generation production lines and continue to create value among lower-generation production lines will be key factors influencing the future competitiveness of manufacturers." China will become the largest single market in terms of panel demand, and China will be a focus of manufacturers' future panel production capacity development. Looking at the overall panel market, the component supply will be a key factor for supply/demand changes in 2010. If component supply does not experience major problems, 2010 is expected to be a year of oversupply.
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Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), based in Taipei, Taiwan, was founded in 1987. MIC is Taiwan's premier IT industry research and consulting firm providing intelligence, in-depth analysis, and strategic consulting services on global IT product and technology trends, focusing on markets and industries in Asia-Pacific. MIC is part of the Institute for Information Industry. http://mic.iii.org.tw/english
The Industry and Technology Intelligence Services (ITIS) project is managed by the Department of Industrial Technology of Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs. As part of the project, research is conducted in a variety of fields, including the ICT sector. The project serves both the public and private sector.