According to research of the Taipei-based Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) conducted as part of the ITIS project, shipment volume of the Greater Chinese notebook PC industry in the full-year 2009 is forecast to reach 114 million units, while worldwide notebook PC shipment volume in 2009 is forecast to reach 123 million units. There are still many variables in current global economic development. Even though some markets have shown signs of rebounding demand, branded vendors are still cautious. For ODM (Original Design Manufacturing) companies, although their outlook has improved somewhat, lead times continue to shorten. Therefore, they also tend to be cautious in dealing with the current industry environment. Meanwhile, CULV (Consumer Ultra Low Voltage) platform notebook PCs could stimulate market demand starting in the second quarter.
According to MIC Industry Analyst Nicole Huang, "due to the impact of the global financial crisis, brand-name vendors and contract manufacturers faced a lack of confidence in the global market in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, and many companies tended to be conservative. In the fourth quarter of 2008, end-market inventory levels had declined to low levels, but from January rush orders emerged which stimulated shipment. As a result, shipment volume of the Greater Chinese notebook PC industry in the first quarter of 2009 is estimated at 24.99 million units, falling 17.9% sequentially, which was better than the originally expected sequential decline of 18.1%."
Reasons for the emergence of rush orders include: first, inventory levels started to rebound, showing that end-market demand was not as weak as expected. Second, shipment in the fourth quarter of 2008 was below expectations. Some branded vendors faced the end of their fiscal year in the first quarter of 2009, and they stepped up their efforts to reach their annual shipment goals and gave orders to contract manufacturers.
ASP (Average Selling Price) of the Greater Chinese notebook PC industry continued to decline in the first quarter, falling below the US$500 mark to US$495. Ms. Huang stated: "mainstream notebook PC vendors pushed low-price products to deal with the continued impact of netbook PCs. Meanwhile, demand in Japan and Europe was not strong, and the industry's high-end product shipment share declined. Demand for enterprise models was also weak, further reducing the shipment share of high-priced products. Also, prices of some components continued to slide, including panels." Shipment value of the Greater Chinese notebook PC industry in the first quarter of 2009 is estimated at US$12.37 billion, declining 19.2% sequentially.
With weak demand in the enterprise market, and the netbook PC wave in the consumer market, notebook PCs continued to move towards lower prices. The shipment share of products priced below US$800 was close to 90% in the first quarter. This trend is expected to slow down in the second quarter. Although ASP of many products is still moving downward, prices of some components are rising, new back-to-school models will hit the market, and some models will see price increases. These developments are expected to continue to the third quarter. With many new products hitting the market and the economy possibly rebounding, the low-price trend is not expected to further intensify.
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About MIC
Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), based in Taipei, Taiwan, was founded in 1987. MIC is Taiwan's premier IT industry research and consulting firm providing intelligence, in-depth analysis, and strategic consulting services on global IT product and technology trends, focusing on markets and industries in Asia-Pacific. MIC is part of the Institute for Information Industry. https://mic.iii.org.tw/english
About ITIS
The Industry and Technology Intelligence Services (ITIS) project is managed by the Department of Industrial Technology of Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs. As part of the project, research is conducted in a variety of fields, including the ICT sector. The project serves both the public and private sector.