Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) released its latest forecasts for AI PCs and AI smartphones at the 37th annual MIC FORUM Fall, themed "AI Smart Chain: Now & Next" this year.
With the gradual deployment of GenAI at the end-market, MIC senior industry analyst Tseng Chiau-Ling mentioned that processors with over 40 TOPS (Tera Operations Per Second) of computing power are set to be launched primarily in the second half of 2024, meaning that AI PC penetration will remain relatively low throughout 2024. However, the arrival of next-generation AI processors and Arm architecture-based processors in 2025 is expected to push global AI PC penetration to 16.8%, with shipment volumes totaling 44 million units. By 2028, AI PC penetration is forecasted to exceed 60%, with global shipments reaching 163 million units.
Global AI PC Market Penetration Forecast, 2024-2028
Note: AI PCs are defined as those equipped with NPU processors, with NPU computing power exceeding 40 TOPS.
Source: MIC, September 2024
Regarding AI smartphones, GenAI applications are set to become a major focus for leading smartphone brands in 2024, with integration into flagship and high-end models. Global AI smartphone penetration is projected to hit 13% in 2024, with 156 million units shipped. By 2025, this penetration is expected to rise to 25%, with shipment volumes reaching 303 million units. AI smartphones are anticipated to penetrate mid- and entry-level models by 2026, and global penetration is forecasted to surpass 60% by 2028.
Looking ahead, Tseng identified three key trends driving the development of AI PCs and AI smartphones:
- Component Upgrades: The rise of AI PCs and smartphones will necessitate upgrades in related components, particularly memory ICs and processors with greater computational power. For example, AI PCs will require DRAM upgrades to 16GB, while AI smartphones will need a minimum of 8GB, depending on the operating system. Memory IC design will need significant changes to meet the demands of GenAI smartphones. Additionally, thermal management components will play a critical role in ensuring stable operation, prompting major manufacturers to adopt various cooling solutions, which in turn will stimulate the related supply chain.
- "One World, Two Systems": AI PC development is leading to a "one world, two systems" scenario. Due to domestic production policies, language differences, and AI application review systems, China is building its own AI PC ecosystem. Globally, the supply chain remains focused on commercial AI applications, while China is developing a distinct ecosystem for large-scale consumer AI applications.
- Subscription-Based AI Services: AI functionality on PCs may evolve towards subscription-based models, with advanced AI features on Apple and Samsung smartphones also potentially shifting to paid service offerings.
These trends highlight the rapid advancements in AI technology and their profound impact on the global semiconductor supply chain and consumer electronics markets.
About Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC):
Established in 1987, Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) is a division of III (Institute for Information Industry), a major government think tank, and one of the leading IT research institutes in Taiwan. MIC specializes in industry and market research. With over three decades of experience, MIC provides valuable insights and data-driven recommendations to assist businesses in making informed decisions.
To know more about this topic, please visit: Global Five-Year Market Forecast 2024-2028: PCs, Servers, Motherboards, Wi-Fi Connected Devices, and Smartphones
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