Shipment volume of the Taiwanese notebook PC industry is expected to have reached about 38.02 million units in the third quarter of 2014, up 5.4% sequentially and 0.6% year-on-year, according to MIC (Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute), a Taipei-based ICT research institute. "The major growth in the third quarter is attributed to the rollout of low-cost models that succeeded in tapping the back-to-school demand," said Jane Yeh, the industry analyst with MIC.
Taiwanese notebook PC shipment value is estimated to have reached approximately US$16.5 billion in the third quarter of 2014, up 3.4% sequentially but down 4.5% year-on-year. Notebook PC ASP (Average Selling Price) is estimated at US$435. In the third quarter of 2014, the low-cost notebook PCs' share is expected to see a boost, thereby pushing ASP lower.
Taiwanese Notebook PC Shipment Value, 4Q 2012 – 1Q 2015
Source: MIC, October 2014
In order to compete with Chromebooks, Microsoft has demonstrated its ambition by launching US$249 notebook PCs in the second and third quarters of 2014. "Taiwanese brand Acer and Dell have yielded fruitful results because of Microsoft's incentive plan and many therefore have followed suits by launching more low-cost models," said Yeh.
Aside from Microsoft, Intel's recently released Bay Trail M processor for mid-to-lower end notebook PCs has been able to suit general use of consumers. Bay Trail-architecture processors not only help cut energy consumption but also help reduce module costs. Embracing Bay Trail processors also allows notebook PC brands' gadgets to look more appealing than previous low-cost models as the new platform is now suited for slimmer form factor designs. As a result, branded vendors have increased the mainstream models running on less-expensive Bay Trail platform which are priced between US$250 and US$400. The market demand for those notebook PCs is therefore ascending.
Outlook for 4Q 2014
Looking at the notebook PC market demand in the fourth quarter of 2014, the replacement demand scenario for commercial notebook PCs is about to come to an end in North America and Japan. On the contrast, the replacement pace of government and enterprises for commercial models has been rather slow in Europe and therefor has delayed the demand further to the fourth quarter of 2014. Amid the growth slowdown of tablets, consumer notebook PC market demand has regained consumer attention. However, as the economic situations in the United States and Europe remain opaque, pricing remains one of key determinant factors when consumers purchase a consumer notebook PC.
On the industry-end, the inventory replenishment demand has ended in October and is about to enter the inventory adjustment phase in November. "Toward the year-end, some brands aim to achieve the shipment objectives set for the year and grab more market share following several brands' decisions to lower their notebook PC business' share such as Sony, Samsung, and Toshiba. Therefore, we believe that those PC brands have plans to kick off the next round of marketing campaigns before the year ends," said Yeh. She added that "as those brands are likely to build up the inventory levels toward year-end, their Taiwanese makers will be major beneficiaries. Consequently, the Taiwanese notebook PC industry is estimated to decline at a slower-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter of 2014."
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About MIC
Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), based in Taipei, Taiwan, was founded in 1987. MIC is Taiwan's premier IT industry research and consulting firm providing intelligence, in-depth analysis, and strategic consulting services on global IT product and technology trends, focusing on markets and industries in Asia-Pacific. MIC is part of the Institute for Information Industry. https://mic.iii.org.tw/english